Shares of Mukesh Ambani-owned Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) rose nearly 1 per cent on Tuesday, hitting an intraday high of Rs 2,986.05 per share, after most brokerages reacted positively to the company's March quarter (Q4FY24) results. The bullish outlook stems from Reliance Jio's potential tariff hikes, given the competitive landscape, along with slow but steady improvement in the oil-to-chemical (O2C) vertical.
Since its October high last year, the stock of innerwear major Page Industries has been on a downtrend, shedding a little over 30 per cent of its market value. Higher competitive intensity, muted volumes, pressure on margins, and rich valuations have led to downgrades for the stock. The October-December quarter (third quarter, or Q3) performance was lower than the Street's expectations - both on volumes/sales and margins.
Berger Paints, the country's second-largest decorative paint maker, continued to outperform its peers and gain market share in the 2023-24 (FY24) October-December quarter (third quarter, or Q3). The company posted a consolidated revenue growth of 7 per cent compared to the year-ago quarter, surpassing Asian Paints (5.4 per cent) and Kansai Nerolac Paints (5.7 per cent).
Shares of low-cost airline IndiGo hit record high on the bourses soon after reports of pilot crisis at Vistara emerged. The development also saw airfares surge by around 25 per cent on select routes. Shares of IndiGo hit a lifetime high of ~3,68.5 on April 2, 2024, and has gained 2.4 per cent on the bourses in April.
Among the Sensex firms, ITC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, ICICI Bank, Nestle, Axis Bank, IndusInd Bank, UltraTech Cement, Bajaj Finance, Maruti and HDFC Bank were the major laggards.
The markets have given a thumbs down to Jubilant FoodWorks results for the April-June quarter (Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24). The company, which owns and operates Domino's Pizza and Popeyes chain of stores, reported a (standalone) net profit of Rs 75.2 crore in Q1 of FY24 - a drop of 25.5 per cent year-on-year (YoY) from Rs 101 crore, but a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) rise from Rs 47.5 crore. What's worrying the Street is the likelihood of a dismal Q2FY24 performance, which it feels will be marred by soaring milk, cheese and vegetable prices.
Base metals major Hindalco's overseas subsidiary, Novelis, has submitted a draft registration with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for the proposed public offering of promoters' shares. Novelis' sole shareholder, AV Minerals (Netherlands) NV, is a 100 per cent subsidiary of Hindalco. Novelis would not receive any proceeds from the sale. Assuming SEC clearance could go through in about 6 months.
'We will have a strong exit as our third quarter is strong.'
ITC stock slipped over 4 per cent on Thursday (February 8) after British American Tobacco (BAT) said it could sell some of its stake in the company, recovering partially in trade. The stock of the cigarette-to-hotels conglomerate traded at Rs 420 levels, rising 1.3 per cent in intraday deals as compared to the S&P BSE Sensex that traded flat for most part of the day. The development, meanwhile, saw Jefferies downgrade the stock to 'hold' from 'buy' earlier with a target price of Rs 430, down a huge 17.3 per cent from its earlier price target of Rs 520.
'Our unsecured loan is not exactly unsecured. It is backed by cash flow of customers.'
InterGlobe Aviation, the operator of India's leading airline IndiGo, delivered a better than expected performance across most parameters in Q2FY24. The company posted its fourth consecutive quarter of net profit of Rs 188 crore. It had reported a loss of Rs 1,583 crore in the same quarter a year ago.
A strong business update for the April-June quarter of the 2023-24 financial year Q1FY24 has led to a big jump of over 7 per cent in the share price of Bajaj Finance on Tuesday (July 4). The non-banking financial company's (NBFC's) new loan book grew 34 per cent with 9.9 million new loans booked in Q1FY24 from 7.2 million loans booked in Q1FY23. The company's total customer franchise rose to 72.98 million (as on June 30, 2023), compared to 60.30 million year-on-year (YoY) with the highest-ever quarterly increase of 3.84 million in Q1FY24. Assets under management (AUM) grew by 32 per cent to about Rs. 270,050 crore in Q1FY24 from Rs. 204,018 crore in Q1FY23.
Strong performance by its US subsidiary Novelis and better returns in the copper business helped Hindalco Industries post consolidated revenue growth of 2 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) to Rs 54,100 crore in the July-September quarter of 2023-23 (Q2FY24). Novelis' Flat Rolled Products (FRP) volumes grew 6 per cent Q-o-Q to 933,000 tonnes (down 5.2 per cent Y-o-Y) on better North American and European volumes. The consolidated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) declined 2 per cent Q-o-Q to Rs 5,610 crore despite lower input costs in India and better Novelis performance.
India's largest listed pharmaceutical (pharma) company - Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (Sun Pharma) - is expected to maintain its outperformance vis--vis the sector's, as its multiple bets on specialty products, improving product mix, recent acquisitions, and branded business are finding favour with brokerages. While it has gained 7 per cent over the past year, the Nifty Pharma Index is down 13.6 per cent. Its outperformance over two years has been fairly evident, with the market leader gaining 66 per cent to Nifty Pharma's minus 1.4 per cent.
However, the second quarter of FY24 is expected to be muted, and, with that, the hope of double-digit growth is now being pushed to FY25. However, analysts are expecting the momentum in the closure of record total contract values (TCVs) will continue, as has been the case over the last two quarters.
In August, the Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das held a meeting with chief executive officers/ managing directors (CEOs/ MDs) of large non-banking financial corporations (NBFCs). The discussions included diversifying borrowing sources for NBFCs and housing finance companies (HFCs) to contain increasing reliance on bank borrowing, risks associated with high credit growth in retail segment in unsecured loans, prioritising IT upgrades and cyber-security, improving provisioning, monitoring of stressed exposures and slippages, ensuring robust liquidity and asset-liability management, ensuring transparency in pricing, creating robust grievance redress mechanisms.
This is a good opportunity for long-term investors to pick quality small and midcap stocks at reasonable valuations.
IT major Accenture's second straight cut in its revenue growth forecast for FY23 suggests there is more pain ahead for the Indian IT sector, say analysts. Accenture has lowered the top end of its FY23 growth guidance in constant currency (CC) to 9 per cent from 10 per cent earlier. The firm, which follows a September-August fiscal cycle, expects a 2-6 per cent CC growth in Q4 of FY23 (June-August 2023) versus the 6-10 per cent prior guidance.
PVR-Inox is in an inherently fickle business. If there is a string of flops, the box office collections will be weak. Conversely, Q2FY24, which witnessed several hits, has brought about an upside in revenues. However, the merger has led to market share gains and synergies that helped bring breakeven down to approximately 20 per cent occupancy.
Brokerages have cut their estimates of listed diagnostics players for the financial year 2023-24 (FY24) after mixed December quarter results and muted near-term outlook. Their volumes and realisations will be under pressure due to weakness in Covid-adjusted performance and higher competitive pressures, the brokerages believe. In a post-Q3 results note on Dr Lal Pathlabs, Bhavesh Gandhi of YES Securities pointed out that there has been a lack of volume revival in recent quarters, with an increasing likelihood that FY24 too would be a work-in-progress year for the company's initiatives to bear fruit.
The stock of Divis Laboratories is up 10 per cent over the last couple of trading sessions on expectations that the worst is behind and the company could see a sequential growth in the March quarter of the 2022-23 financial year (Q4FY23). The stock witnessed the highest downgrades among Nifty50 index stocks with earnings cuts over a third after the Q3FY23 results. The company had posted a 32 per cent drop in revenues over the year ago quarter in Q3FY23 and 8 per cent sequentially, which was sharply lower than Street expectations.
'Interim Budget has ignited the entrepreneurial spirit.'
Street gave a thumbs down to Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail (ABFRL)-TCNS Clothing deal as analysts flagged near-term profitability risks for ABFRL with its latest acquisition. At the bourses, shares of the Aditya Birla group company tumbled 6.2 per cent in the intra-day trade, before settling 3.27 per cent lower at R 207.2. Those of TCNS, meanwhile, plunged 20 per cent to end at Rs 416.64.
Rise in input costs, inventory write-off, and pricing pressures led to a drop in gross margins. Higher competitive pressures led to cuts in operating profit margins and earnings estimates for FY24 and FY25. Most brokerages have a 'neutral' or a 'reduce' rating on the stock on account of valuations.
Logistics services provider Delhivery posted a mixed set of results during the March quarter of the previous financial year (Q4 of FY23). While its operating profit was marginally in the green, its net losses widened as compared to the year-ago quarter. Overall revenues, which were in line with estimates, fell 10 per cent year-on-year (YoY).
In the longer-term, analysts expect IHCL to see revenue CAGR of 15 per cent between FY23 to FY25 and Ebitda CAGR of 20 per cent in the same period. Analysts are seeing targets of around Rs 375-Rs 380 for the stock, which is a significant upside from the current Rs 313.
Zomato has lost over 9 per cent thus far in calendar year 2023 (CY23) and has underperformed the S&P BSE Sensex that has slipped nearly 5.3 per cent during this period. Despite this underperformance, analysts at HSBC think that the stock can hit Rs 87 going ahead - up over 64 per cent from the current levels. The food delivery industry, wrote Yogesh Aggarwal and Abhishek Pathak of HSBC in a recent note, has slowed considerably in the last few months.
'We do not see people getting reduced, but because of automation, we will do more work.'
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to maintain the status quo on policy rates for the fourth consecutive time in its October 4-6 review meeting. The incremental information available since its last meeting in August suggests that growth and inflation prints for the second quarter (Q2) of financial year 2023-24 (FY24) will exceed the committee's projections. However, the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation is expected to moderate in the second half (H2) of FY24.
Bharti Airtel delivered encouraging results for the January-March quarter of the 2022-23 financial year (Q4FY23) as telecom and associated services moved into the 5G zone. In India, Airtel's mobile Q4 revenue and Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) were Rs 19,550 crore (up 1 per cent quarter-on-quarter or QoQ) and Rs 10,530 crore (up 1.1 per cent QoQ), respectively. The Ebitda margin was flat at 52.2 per cent.
The Reserve Bank India's (RBI's) decision to ban the onboarding of new accounts on the "bob World" mobile digital platform led to a selloff in the Bank of Baroda (BoB) stock. The stock of the public sector bank dropped by around 3 per cent. The central bank cited "material supervisory concerns"; news reports claimed mobile numbers were randomly linked to accounts to purportedly inflate registrations on bob World.
Cement companies posted mixed figures for the first quarter of the 2023-24 financial year (Q1FY24). Volume growth was robust at 17 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) - on an aggregate basis - for 15 cement companies, with revenue growth at 15 per cent. Aggregate earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) were up 8.8 per cent Y-o-Y and 1.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q).
Abbott India outperformed the Indian pharmaceutical market (IPM) with a year-on-year (YoY) growth of 23 per cent in February. The domestic market grew at a robust 20 per cent on a low base, primarily led by volume growth and price hikes. Abbott continued to outperform the sector in the anti-diabetic space with a growth of 20 per cent and key brands such as Thyronorm (hypothyroidism), biliary agent Udiliv, insulin Ryzodeg posted robust growth.
Novelis' results for the January-March quarter of the 2022-23 financial year (Q4FY23) disappointed investors and as a result, the share price of Hindalco (Novelis is a 100 per cent subsidiary of Hindalco) has slid. The non-ferrous metals major is suffering from the impact of a down-cycle in aluminium and copper, as well as the slowdown imposed in Europe by the Russia-Ukraine war. Prospects for the firm look gloomy, at least for the first half (H1) of FY24.
Bajaj Finance's quarterly business update, coupled with around 24 per cent fall over the past six months, has turned risk-reward favourable for investors, observe analysts. They see up to 39 per cent upside in the stock, from a one-year perspective. Global brokerage CLSA, for instance, has upgraded the stock from 'underperform' to 'outperform' with an increased one-year target price of Rs 6,600 (vs Rs 6,000 earlier) as it believes the risk-reward has turned favourable for the counter, and there is scope for expansion if growth remains robust.
Gold prices hit record high in the third week of March as fears of bank collapses and high inflation led investors to the traditional safe haven. Gold prices are often inversely correlated to dollar strength because the international price is dollar-denominated. The Federal Reserve's (Fed's) stance indicates that the dollar may appreciate further since it is prepared to keep pushing up policy rates. But demand for gold is also up - the World Gold Council claims central banks are buying in addition to private demand.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said India and China will account for half of the global economic growth in 2023, as the multilateral agency retained its growth forecast for Asia's third-largest economy for 2023-24 (FY24). "India remains a bright spot. Together with China, it will account for half of global growth this year, versus just a tenth for the US and euro area combined," the IMF said in its latest update to the biannual World Economic Outlook. Growth in India is set to decline from 6.8 per cent in 2022 (FY23) to 6.1 per cent in 2023 (FY24) before picking up to 6.8 per cent in 2024 (FY25), the global lender said while citing "resilient domestic demand despite external headwinds".
These stocks offer the best combination of maximum 'buy' recommendations from brokerages and share price upside over the next 12 months.
FSN E-Commerce Ventures, the parent of Nykaa, has had a roller-coaster ride since listing last November. The initial public offering (IPO) was priced at Rs 1,125 apiece, and the stock listed at a 96 per cent premium, closing the first day at Rs 2,205 apiece. It subsequently hit a high of Rs 2,573 in late November, but has seen steady selling since, hitting a low of Rs 1,208 in May.
The stock, which is a play on the growth story of Indian Railways, has corrected 15 per cent from its 52-week high level of Rs 2,072.95 scaled on March 9. Yet, this has not deterred brokerages from holding a bullish view on the stock.
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